Zotsatira za kuwunikaku zikuwonetsa kuti kudalira kuwongolera kwamphamvu kwamagetsi kuphatikiza ndi CCUS ndi NETs kokha sikungakhale njira yotsika mtengo yochepetsera kaboni m'magawo a HTA aku China, makamaka mafakitale olemera.Makamaka, kugwiritsa ntchito kwambiri haidrojeni yoyera m'magawo a HTA kungathandize China kukwaniritsa mtengo wosalowerera ndale poyerekeza ndi zomwe zimachitika popanda kupanga ndi kugwiritsa ntchito haidrojeni.Zotsatirazi zimapereka chiwongolero champhamvu panjira yaku China ya HTA decarbonization komanso chidziwitso chofunikira kumayiko ena omwe akukumana ndi zovuta zofananira.
Decarbonizing zigawo zamakampani za HTA ndi haidrojeni yoyera
Tikuchita zophatikiza zotsika mtengo zochepetsera njira zochepetsera kusalowerera ndale kwa kaboni ku China mu 2060. Zochitika zinayi zachitsanzo zafotokozedwa mu Gulu 1: bizinesi monga mwanthawi zonse (BAU), Zopereka Zotsimikizika ku China pansi pa Pangano la Paris (NDC), net- kutulutsa ziro kopanda haidrojeni (ZERO-NH) ndi net-zero mpweya wokhala ndi haidrojeni yoyera (ZERO-H).Magawo a HTA mu kafukufukuyu akuphatikizapo kupanga mafakitale a simenti, chitsulo ndi zitsulo ndi mankhwala ofunikira (kuphatikizapo ammonia, soda ndi caustic soda) ndi zoyendera zolemetsa, kuphatikizapo trucking ndi sitima zapakhomo.Zambiri zaperekedwa mu gawo la Njira ndi Mfundo Zowonjezera 1-5.Ponena za gawo lachitsulo ndi zitsulo, gawo lalikulu lazinthu zomwe zilipo kale ku China (89.6%) ndi njira yoyambira ng'anjo ya okosijeni, yomwe ndi vuto lalikulu pakuwonongeka kwakukulu kwa izi.
makampani.Njira yopangira ng'anjo yamagetsi yamagetsi idangokhala 10.4% yokha yazinthu zonse zomwe zidapangidwa ku China mu 2019, zomwe ndi 17.5% zocheperapo zomwe zimagawana padziko lonse lapansi ndi 59.3% zocheperapo za United States18.Tidasanthula matekinoloje 60 ofunikira kuti tichepetse mpweya wotulutsa chitsulo muchitsanzocho ndikuziika m'magulu asanu ndi limodzi (mkuyu 2a): kuwongolera bwino kwazinthu, ukadaulo wapamwamba kwambiri, kuyika magetsi, CCUS, hydrogen wobiriwira ndi haidrojeni ya buluu (Supplementary Table 1).Poyerekeza kukhathamiritsa kwa mtengo wa ZERO-H ndi NDC ndi zochitika za ZERO-NH zikuwonetsa kuti kuphatikiza zosankha zoyera za haidrojeni kungathandize kwambiri kuchepetsa mpweya chifukwa choyambitsa njira zochepetsera chitsulo (hydrogen-DRI).Zindikirani kuti haidrojeni imatha kugwira ntchito osati ngati gwero lamphamvu popanga zitsulo komanso ngati chochepetsera mpweya wa carbon-abating powonjezera pa njira ya Blast Furnance-Basic Oxygen Furnance (BF-BOF) ndi 100% munjira ya hydrogen-DRI.Pansi pa ZERO-H, gawo la BF-BOF lidzachepetsedwa kufika 34% mu 2060, ndi 45% ng'anjo yamagetsi yamagetsi ndi 21% ya haidrojeni-DRI, ndipo haidrojeni yoyera idzapereka 29% ya mphamvu yomaliza yofunikira m'gawoli.Ndi mtengo wa gridi yamagetsi a dzuwa ndi mphepo akuyembekezekakutsika mpaka US$38–40MWh−1 mu 205019, mtengo wa hydrogen wobiriwira
idzatsikanso, ndipo njira ya 100% ya haidrojeni-DRI ingakhale ndi gawo lofunika kwambiri kuposa lomwe linazindikiridwa kale.Ponena za kupanga simenti, mtunduwo ukuphatikizanso ukadaulo wofunikira 47 wochepetsera popanga zinthu zomwe zagawidwa m'magulu asanu ndi limodzi (Zowonjezera Zowonjezera 2 ndi 3): mphamvu zogwiritsira ntchito mphamvu, mafuta ena, kuchepetsa chiŵerengero cha clinker-to-simenti, CCUS, green hydrogen ndi blue hydrogen ( Chithunzi 2b).Zotsatira zikuwonetsa kuti matekinoloje owongolera mphamvu zamagetsi amatha kuchepetsa 8-10% yokha yamafuta onse a CO2 mu gawo la simenti, komanso kuphatikizika kwa kutentha kwa zinyalala ndi matekinoloje amafuta a oxy-fuel adzakhala ndi mphamvu zochepa zochepetsera (4-8%).Ukadaulo wochepetsera chiŵerengero cha clinker-to-simenti ukhoza kutulutsa mpweya wochuluka kwambiri (50-70%), makamaka kuphatikiza zopangira zopangira ma clinker pogwiritsa ntchito granulated blast ng'anjo yamoto, ngakhale otsutsa amakayikira ngati simentiyo ikhalabe ndi mikhalidwe yake yofunikira.Koma zotsatira zaposachedwa zikuwonetsa kuti kugwiritsa ntchito haidrojeni limodzi ndi CCUS kungathandize gawo la simenti kuti lipeze mpweya wokwanira wa CO2 mu 2060.
Muzochitika za ZERO-H, matekinoloje 20 opangidwa ndi haidrojeni (mwa 47 matekinoloje ochepetsera) amalowa mukupanga simenti.Timapeza kuti mtengo wapakati wochepetsera mpweya waukadaulo wa haidrojeni ndi wocheperako kuposa momwe CCUS ndi njira zosinthira mafuta (mkuyu 2b).Kuphatikiza apo, haidrojeni yobiriwira ikuyembekezeka kukhala yotsika mtengo kuposa haidrojeni ya buluu pambuyo pa 2030 monga tafotokozera mwatsatanetsatane pansipa, pafupifupi US$0.7–US$1.6 kg-1 H2 (ref. 20), zomwe zimabweretsa kuchepa kwakukulu kwa CO2 pakuperekedwa kwa kutentha kwa mafakitale popanga simenti. .Zotsatira zapano zikuwonetsa kuti zitha kuchepetsa 89-95% ya CO2 kuchokera pakutentha kwamakampani aku China (mkuyu 2b, matekinoloje
28–47), zomwe zikugwirizana ndi kuyerekezera kwa Hydrogen Council kwa 84–92% (ref. 21).Kutulutsa kwa Clinker kwa CO2 kuyenera kuchepetsedwa ndi CCUS mu ZERO-H ndi ZERO-NH.Timayerekezeranso kugwiritsa ntchito haidrojeni ngati chakudya popanga ammonia, methane, methanol ndi mankhwala ena omwe atchulidwa muzofotokozera zachitsanzo.Muzochitika za ZERO-H, kupanga ammonia opangidwa ndi gasi ndi kutentha kwa hydrogen kudzapeza gawo la 20% lazinthu zonse mu 2060 (mkuyu 3 ndi Supplementary Table 4).Chitsanzocho chimaphatikizapo mitundu inayi ya matekinoloje opangira methanol: malasha ku methanol (CTM), mpweya wa coke ku methanol (CGTM), gasi wachilengedwe kupita ku methanol (NTM) ndi CGTM/NTM ndi kutentha kwa hydrogen.Muzochitika za ZERO-H, CGTM / NTM yokhala ndi kutentha kwa hydrogen ikhoza kukwaniritsa gawo la 21% mu 2060 (mkuyu 3).Mankhwala amathanso kunyamula mphamvu ya haidrojeni.Pamaziko a kusanthula kwathu kophatikizana, hydrogen ikhoza kukhala ndi 17% ya mphamvu yomaliza yogwiritsira ntchito mphamvu yoperekera kutentha m'makampani opanga mankhwala ndi 2060. Pamodzi ndi bioenergy (18%) ndi magetsi (32%), haidrojeni ili ndi ntchito yaikulu

decarbonization wa makampani China HTA mankhwala (mkuyu 4a).
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Chithunzi 2 |Kuthekera kochepetsera kaboni komanso kutsika mtengo kwamatekinoloje ofunikira ochepetsera.a, Magulu asanu ndi limodzi a 60 makiyi opangira zitsulo zochepetsera mpweya.b, Magulu asanu ndi limodzi a matekinoloje 47 ofunikira ochepetsa kutulutsa simenti.Matekinoloje amalembedwa ndi nambala, ndi matanthauzo ofanana omwe akuphatikizidwa mu Supplementary Table 1 ya a ndi Supplementary Table 2 ya b.Miyezo yokonzekera ukadaulo (TRLs) yaukadaulo uliwonse imalembedwa: TRL3, lingaliro;TRL4, chitsanzo chaching'ono;TRL5, chitsanzo chachikulu;TRL6, mawonekedwe athunthu pamlingo;TRL7,chiwonetsero chisanachitike malonda;TRL8, chiwonetsero;TRL10, kukhazikitsidwa koyambirira;TRL11, wokhwima.
Decarbonizing HTA zoyendera mayendedwe ndi woyera haidrojeni Pamaziko a zotsatira chitsanzo, haidrojeni alinso ndi mwayi waukulu decarbonize gawo zoyendera China, ngakhale zitenga nthawi.Kuphatikiza pa ma LDV, njira zina zoyendera zomwe zikuwunikidwa pachitsanzochi ndi monga mabasi amtundu, magalimoto (opepuka / ang'onoang'ono / apakati / olemetsa), zotumiza zapanyumba ndi njanji, zomwe zimayendetsa mayendedwe ambiri ku China.Kwa ma LDV, magalimoto amagetsi amawoneka kuti azikhalabe okwera mtengo mtsogolomo.Mu ZERO-H, hydrogen fuel cell (HFC) kulowa kwa msika wa LDV kudzafikira 5% yokha mu 2060 (mkuyu 3).Kwa mabasi amtundu, komabe, mabasi a HFC adzakhala okwera mtengo kuposa njira zamagetsi mu 2045 ndipo akuphatikizapo 61% ya zombo zonse mu 2060 mu ZERO-H scenario, ndi magetsi otsala (mkuyu 3).Ponena za magalimoto, zotsatira zake zimasiyana malinga ndi kuchuluka kwa katundu.Kuthamangitsidwa kwamagetsi kudzayendetsa kuposa theka la magalimoto opepuka opepuka pofika 2035 ku ZERO-NH.Koma mu ZERO-H, magalimoto oyendetsa galimoto a HFC adzakhala opikisana kwambiri kuposa magalimoto oyendera magetsi pofika chaka cha 2035 ndipo akuphatikizapo 53% ya msika pofika 2060. msika mu 2060 muzochitika za ZERO-H.Diesel / bio-diesel / CNG (compressed natural gas) HDVs (magalimoto olemetsa) adzasiya msika pambuyo pa 2050 muzochitika zonse za ZERO-NH ndi ZERO-H (Mkuyu 3).Magalimoto a HFC ali ndi mwayi wowonjezera kuposa magalimoto amagetsi pakuchita bwino m'malo ozizira, ofunikira kumpoto ndi kumadzulo kwa China.Kupitilira mayendedwe apamsewu, mtunduwo ukuwonetsa kufalikira kwa matekinoloje a haidrojeni potumiza mu ZERO-H scenario.Kutumiza kwapakhomo ku China kumakhala ndi mphamvu zambiri komanso vuto lalikulu la decarbonization.Chotsani haidrojeni, makamaka ngati a
feedstock for ammonia, imapereka mwayi wotumiza decarbonization.Njira yotsika mtengo yothetsera vuto la ZERO-H imapangitsa 65% kulowa kwa ammonia ndi 12% ya zombo za hydrogen mu 2060 (mkuyu 3).Muzochitika izi, hydrogen idzawerengera pafupifupi 56% ya mphamvu yomaliza yogwiritsira ntchito gawo lonse la zoyendera mu 2060. Tinawonetsanso kugwiritsa ntchito hydrogen pa kutentha kwa nyumba (Supplementary Note 6), koma kukhazikitsidwa kwake sikungaganizidwe ndipo pepala ili likuyang'ana kwambiri. kugwiritsa ntchito haidrojeni m'mafakitale a HTA komanso zonyamula katundu wolemetsa.Mtengo ndalama za kusalowerera ndale mpweya ntchito woyera haidrojeni China mpweya ndale tsogolo adzakhala yodziwika ndi zongowonjezwdwa angathe mphamvu kulamulira, ndi kutha pa malasha mu mowa wake waukulu mphamvu (mkuyu. 4).Mafuta osakhala amafuta amaphatikiza 88% ya kusakaniza kwamphamvu koyambira mu 2050 ndi 93% mu 2060 pansi pa ZERO-H.Wind ndi solar adzapereka theka lamphamvu yogwiritsira ntchito mphamvu mu 2060. Pafupifupi, mdziko lonse, gawo loyera la hydrogen mowa (TFEC) ukhoza kufika 13% mu 2060. Poganizira kusiyanasiyana kwa zigawo za mphamvu zopanga m'mafakitale akuluakulu ndi dera (Supplementary Table 7), pali zigawo khumi ndi magawo a haidrojeni a TFEC apamwamba kuposa chiwerengero cha dziko lonse, kuphatikizapo Inner Mongolia, Fujian, Shandong. ndi Guangdong, motsogozedwa ndi mphamvu yamphamvu yadzuwa ndi ya kumtunda ndi kumtunda ndi / kapena zofuna zambiri zamafakitale za haidrojeni.Muzochitika za ZERO-NH, ndalama zochulukirapo kuti mukwaniritse kusalowerera ndale mpaka 2060 zitha kukhala $20.63 thililiyoni, kapena 1.58% yazogulitsa zonse zapakhomo (GDP) za 2020-2060.Ndalama zowonjezera zowonjezera pachaka zimakhala pafupifupi US $ 516 biliyoni pachaka.Zotsatirazi zikugwirizana ndi dongosolo la China lochepetsera ndalama zokwana madola 15 thililiyoni mpaka 2050, ndalama zapachaka zatsopano zokwana US$500 biliyoni (ref. 22).Komabe, kuyambitsa njira zoyeretsera za haidrojeni mumagetsi aku China komanso zakudya zamafakitale muzochitika za ZERO-H kumabweretsa kutsika kwakukulu kwa ndalama zokwana US $ 18.91 thililiyoni pofika 2060 komanso pachaka.Ndalama zitha kuchepetsedwa mpaka 1% ya GDP mu 2060 (Chith.4).Ponena za magawo a HTA, ndalama zogulira pachaka muzomagawo angakhale pafupifupi US $ 392 biliyoni pachaka mu ZERO-NHscenario, zomwe zikugwirizana ndi kuwonetsera kwa EnergyTransition Commission (US$400 biliyoni) (ref. 23).Komabe, ngati woyera
haidrojeni imaphatikizidwa mu mphamvu zamagetsi ndi zakudya zamagetsi, zochitika za ZERO-H zimasonyeza kuti ndalama zogulira pachaka m'magulu a HTA zikhoza kuchepetsedwa kufika ku US $ 359 biliyoni, makamaka pochepetsa kudalira CCUS kapena NETs zamtengo wapatali.Zotsatira zathu zikuwonetsa kuti kugwiritsa ntchito haidrojeni yoyera kumatha kupulumutsa US $ 1.72 thililiyoni pamtengo wandalama ndikupewa kutayika kwa 0.13% mu GDP (2020-2060) poyerekeza ndi njira yopanda haidrojeni mpaka 2060.
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Chithunzi 3 |Kulowa kwaukadaulo m'magawo wamba a HTA.Zotsatira pansi pa BAU, NDC, ZERO-NH ndi ZERO-H scenarios (2020–2060).M'chaka chilichonse chofunikira kwambiri, kulowetsedwa kwaukadaulo m'magawo osiyanasiyana kumawonetsedwa ndi mipiringidzo yamitundu, pomwe mipiringidzo iliyonse imakhala ndi gawo lolowera mpaka 100% (pamalo otchinga bwino).Ukadaulo umayikidwanso m'magulu osiyanasiyana (owonetsedwa munthano).CNG, wothinikizidwa gasi wachilengedwe;LPG, gasi wamafuta amafuta;LNG, gasi wamadzimadzi;w/wo, ndi kapena popanda;EAF, ng'anjo yamagetsi yamagetsi;NSP, kuyimitsidwa kwatsopano kwa preheater yowuma;WHR, kubwezeretsa kutentha kwa zinyalala.

Nthawi yotumiza: Mar-13-2023
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